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Although it appears to have been mainly technical factors that triggered the correction in the stock market, inflation concerns have been the major cause for plummeting stock market prices. We have outlined such a scenario of inflation and its impact on real estate investments.
Indeed, the difference between current and trend economic growth is moving close to zero, rising labor demand is putting upward pressure on wages and salaries, but it is still far from a strong acceleration in inflation rates. Meanwhile, the recommendation by the US Department of Commerce in its investigation to restrict aluminum and steel imports on national security grounds is a reminder that the risk of escalating trade tension has a significant impact on real estate investments.
We are not suggesting that the probabilities of risks have risen substantially in light of these events. However, we argue that higher volatility combined with uncertainties about the future uncertain outlook for US trade policy is not an environment where we should risk everything on one endeavor, but rather seek returns by pursuing opportunities in the real estate market.
It would be more than natural that unjustified price appreciations will be corrected over time. Some observers believe that rising inflation may have played a prominent role in the recent stock market sell-off. However, higher inflation points to an overheating economy and rising wages could lower profit margins. Neither case obviously applies at the current time. However, historical evidence shows that periods when inflation begins to rise often create volatility in real estate markets and, on average, returns are meager. Finally yet importantly, higher interest rates could hit real estate prices if they reflect rising risk. Higher interest rates should be less relevant if they result from higher growth.
For now, we expect the implications of rising interest rates on the real estate outlook to be limited. A more persistent significant decline in real estate prices could, however, be associated with somewhat slower growth, either because the economy anticipates a slowdown, or because economic decline itself dampens growth.
The impact of rising interest rates on growth also depends on the factors that pushed up interest rates. The rise in interest rates could be the consequence of stronger growth momentum, in which case the economic fallout is understandably limited. However, if higher interest rates reflect rising risks, for instance, then growth may well suffer more significantly. Financial conditions remain very loose and interest rates relatively low. This should continue to support economic growth.
Therefore, we are keeping our scenario of sustained economic growth: (1) higher world economic activity, (2) rising fixed capital formation, (3) a very gradual adjustment of monetary policy in the US. We acknowledge the risks from higher protectionism, as recent announcements are a reminder that trade frictions could escalate significantly. At this point, it remains to be seen what action the US will take and how other countries may respond.
Since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008, most have averted the specter of deflation by deploying conventional and - even more importantly - unconventional measures of monetary policy. Inflation in the US averaged around 1.5%, with a dispersion of -2% in mid 2009 to approximately 3.8% in late 2011. Currently, US consumer price inflation stands at 2.1%.
In the US, the government is embarking on a path of fiscal stimulus, and more trade tariffs and trade friction may push inflation higher. However, several factors are keeping underlying inflationary pressure contained for now, including still-cautious wage bargaining behavior by households, price setting by firms and compositional changes in the labor market. In addition, the recent readings have likely overstated current price trends,( the surprising weakness in inflation in 2017). Outside the US, wage and price trends have not changed much in recent months.
Against this backdrop, we do not foresee any surprises over the course of 2018. The Fed is expected to gradually lift rates with caution depending on the tightness of the US labor market, the evidence of accelerating wage dynamics and the potential impact of higher financial market volatility on economic growth.
In addition, a tax policy that fosters the competitiveness of Corporate America and attracts direct foreign investments, helping to raise the potential growth rate of US, should also be supportive for the greenback. At the same time, there are as many factors pointing to a glorious future for real estate markets
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the current probability of recession for the US economy stands at around 4%, moving to approximately 10% at the end of 2018. In our view, the gradual tightening of monetary policy, limited inflation expectations and cautious investment demand, will keep real interest rates relatively low. Therefore, we prefer real estate investments in 2018.
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In most areas of this country, there are a large number of real estate agents, yet, in most instances, a small percentage of them, do most of the business. Often, one of the primary considerations, in differentiating between the best agents, and the rest, of the pack, is their degree and quality of INSIGHTS! Clients need, and deserve the finest representation, and therefore, should carefully consider, which agent, best serves their needs, goals, etc. With that in mind, this article will attempt to briefly, consider, examine, review, and discuss, using the mnemonic approach, what this means and represents, and why it matters.
1. Integrity: Perhaps, more than any other, single quality/ aspect, you need and deserve to hire someone, who possesses the highest degree of personal and professional integrity, and proceeds, with ethics, which exceed, those required by most state's laws, and the requirements and rules of real estate boards.
2. Needs: Every homeowner has certain differences, needs, requirements, goals, priorities, and perceptions! Only, when one is represented, by someone, who prioritizes these, is he making the best decision, for his personal interests, etc!
3. Service: A primary reason, to seek professional representation, is to receive the high quality of service, which makes a significant difference, for the better! How one is served, makes this possible, because it reduces the stresses, and tensions, associated with the real estate process, etc.
4. Imagination; innovate; insights: Results, usually, are enhanced and improved, when an agent possesses a well - developed, considered, imagination, which is relevant to creating better, finer results, etc! To do so, one must be ready, and willing, to innovate, and articulate, clearly, his insights, to his client, so they proceed, on the same - page, with the finest, most meaningful, degree of teamwork!
5. Good: Good should not be good - enough, because you deserve genuine excellence! Discuss with your potential agents, up - front, what they will do, for you, which differentiates them, from the rest - of - the - pack!
6. Head/ heart; healing: Many homeowners discover, one of the challenges, of putting their home on the market, is, often, balancing their emotional, with their logical ones! An agent must proceed, with a focus and emphasis, on healing, and easing, the process!
7. Timely; time - tested; trends: Professionals learn from their experiences, to become better, and more prepared. To do so, they understand and use, relevant, time - tested actions, while proceeding, without procrastination, in a well - considered, timely manner! In addition, this must be done, while taking advantage of those trends, which might, ease this process, in the client's best - interests!
Since, for most of us, our home represents our single - biggest, financial asset, doesn't it make sense, to hire someone, with the INSIGHT, to make things better! Will you proceed, wisely?
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Many, often, articulate, some of the essentials, of financial planning, but, do so, without fully, paying attention, to what this should include, and mean! There are many necessities, including the need, to include, all possible components, which might enhance one's ability, to be, as successful, from a financial perspective, as possible. However, many, only look at this, in terms of stocks, bonds, and other investments, without, fully considering, where real estate, should fit in, to the overall equation. It takes intelligent, financial planning, both, from an overall perspective, as well as, a specific one, to determine, how to create, the proper balance, and direction, for each of us. There is no such thing, as, a, one - size- fits - all, approach, but, rather, this article will attempt to consider, examine, review, and discuss, why, in most instances, real estate, should be, a vital part, of one's personal, financial plan.
1. Beginning the process: One should begin, this process, by giving himself, a check - up, from the neck - up, and determining what his personal, financial goals, are, and why. Real estate, should be broken into two categories: personal housing; and investing. For most people, the value of their home, represents, their single - biggest, investment, as well, as housing, and owning, a piece, of the American Dream! In many instances, from an historical perspective, investing in real estate, has been a quality decision, because, not only, does the property, itself, help to keep up, with inflation, but, there are tax benefits (including depreciation, etc), and, when, done, properly, a positive, cash flow. Before, this can be done, effectively, and efficiently, it's important to be prepared, for the financial necessities. These include: funds for down - payment, and closing costs; financial reserves for repairs, renovations, maintenance, and upgrades; and; a reserve for contingencies. When investing, consider cash flow, rates of return, and, both, the possibilities, and ramifications.
2. Do you wish to be a landlord?: Are you, ready, willing, and able, to be, a landlord, and the associated responsibilities, stresses, strains, hassles, and potential tensions?
3. Balanced portfolios: Wise investors seek to diversify, and, doing, so, means, properly, balancing, investments in stocks, bonds, savings, real estate, etc. Real estate, traditionally, increases, in value, at, or slightly, more, than the inflation rate, while, bonds, often do not, and stocks, are often selective, and challenging, to balance, and choose, properly and effectively.
4. Personal home: How important is it, to you, to achieve, some part of, the American Dream, by owning a home, of your own? It makes sense, to weigh, whether you should buy, or rent, where to do so, advantages and disadvantages, and the ways, to be, financially prepared, for contingencies, and enjoy it!
5. Investing in real estate: Some people use Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REIT's, to participate, in real estate investing. They hope, to take advantage of professionally managed, portfolios, but, should, recognize, some are, more conservative, and income - oriented, while others, may be, less secure, and more speculative! Others begin their involvement by buying a two - family house, and it is wise, to weigh, the costs, versus, the potential, and risks.
Wise investors balance their portfolios, and, thus, their risk/ exposure. Are you willing to commit, to proceeding, wisely, and with your, eyes - wide - open?
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The real estate market in Altadena, CA is red hot. Homes for sale in Altadena command high prices and never stay on the market very long. Why? Both realtors and residents will answer that by stating: Altadena is a very special place to live, work and relax.
Altadena is charming community located directly north of Pasadena at the base of the Angeles National Forest San Gabriel Mountains. Altadena is an unincorporated and 14 miles northeast from Downtown Los Angeles. This warm, Mediterranean climate has hot and dry summers that average highs of 91 degrees. The winters are essentially warm and windy with the lowest average temperature of 44 degrees. Altadena averages 21 inches of rainfall annually.
According to the 2010 U.S. Census - Altadena had a population of 42,777 people. With 8.71 square miles to share there were 4,909.6 people per square mile. This is average for Los Angeles County. The population was more diverse compared to other areas of the county with the dominate ethnicity being White at 52.8%, followed by 26.9% Latino, 23.7% Black, 5.4% Asian and 0.7% American Indian.
The population of Altadena is well educated in comparison to the rest of the county with 45.6% of residents aged 25 and up with a four year degree and 87.9% with a high school diploma. In regards to the male population: 57.8% were married, 32.9% had never been married, 7.1% had been divorced and 2.1% were widowed. The female population had53.9% who were married, 24.4% had never been married, 12.4% were divorced and 9.4% were widowed. The average age of Altadena was 37, which is an older average age compared to the rest of Los Angeles County. 9.8% of the people in population were veterans and 20.8% of residents were born in a foreign country. The average commute to work was 27.5 minutes. Altadena has a Walk Score of 48 out of 100 meaning that it is a car dependent city.
The average household size was 2.8 people, which was 9% higher than the national average. Approximately 74.6% of residents owned their homes. This was 10% higher than the national average. 25.4% of the population rented from a house, apartment or condominium. The 2010 Census declared there being 15,518 households with a median household income of $83,917. This is high compared to Los Angeles County.
Altadena real estate isn't cheap, however. The median price of homes for sale in Altadena is $780,000. This is 226% higher than the national average. However, the average home value is $731,400. The price per square foot is $485. The current housing market "temperature" is neutral. Last year the home values increased by 8.1% and Zillow predicts they will rise only 1.9% within the next year. The average monthly rent is $2,921. This is 53% higher than the national average. The current housing market health is 6.9/10. This is healthy score given by Zillow in comparison to other housing markets across the country.
According to Area Vibes, Altadena has a livability score of 77 - extremely livable. This is higher than the national average of 70. This comfortable, safe community will continue to flourish and grow and produce beautiful homes by its affluent residents. If looking to buy or sell real estate in Altadena, make certain you perform your due diligence and find an experienced realtor who specializes in the area.
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The Alternative Minimum Tax is a very important consideration for taxpayers who own real estate because just about every tax rule applying to real estate is different for the AMT than it is for the Regular Tax. This article on Real Estate and the AMT will address those situations where the individual holds the real estate as an investment, typically as rental property. The differences in tax treatment between the Regular Tax and the AMT can be significant.
Interest expense
Interest paid on the mortgage taken out to acquire the property is fully deductible, both for the Regular Tax and the Alternative Minimum Tax. Unlike itemized deductions that allow a tax benefit for what amounts to personal expenses, the tax law generally allows all deductions a taxpayer has to make in the pursuit of business income. Thus, the limitations discussed in the previous article on home mortgage interest do not apply.
If, however, the equity in the rental property is used as security for an additional loan - a second mortgage, for example - then the taxpayer must look to how the proceeds of that loan are used to determine interest deductibility. If the proceeds are used for a car loan or to finance a child's education, for example, then the interest is nondeductible personal interest. If the proceeds are used to improve the rental property, the interest is deductible.
Suggestion - it is best that taxpayers keep personal borrowings separate from business borrowings. Mixing the two creates recordkeeping challenges and can result in disputes with the IRS.
Property taxes
Property taxes paid on rental or investment property are allowed in full both for Regular Tax purposes as well as for the Alternative Minimum Tax.
Planning idea - if you have an opportunity to pay your property tax bill either this year or next, pay it in a year when you have enough income from the property so as not to generate a rental loss. This strategy can help avoid triggering the passive activity loss limitations described below.
Example - in Florida property tax bills are mailed in October, and are payable under the following discount schedule: November - 4%, December - 3%, January - 2%, February - 1%. If you have a loss from the property in 2010 but expect to generate income in 2011, do not pay your bill in November or December - forgoing that small discount could help you avoid the loss-limitation rules.
Depreciation
Depreciation is allowed for property held for investment. The portion of the cost allocable to land is not depreciable, but for the building itself and the furniture, appliances, carpeting, etc. a depreciation deduction may be taken.
Real property (this is the legal definition of the house or other building) held for rental/investment may only be depreciated for Regular Tax purposes under the "straight-line" method, over a useful life of 27.5 years. Thus, a property with $275,000 allocated to the building would be depreciated at the rate of $10,000 per year.
Personal property (this is the legal definition of things such as furniture, appliances, carpeting and the like) may be depreciated for Regular Tax purposes under an "accelerated" method over a useful life of five years. An accelerated method allows a larger depreciation deduction in the early years, in recognition of an obsolescence or decline-in-value factor that you see in new property (cars are a good example).
For purposes of the AMT, however, personal property may be depreciated only by using a straight-line method. Thus, an AMT item will be generated in the early years if the accelerated method is used.
Planning idea - for personal property consider electing the straight-line method for Regular Tax purposes. While giving up a little tax benefit from the greater depreciation in the early years, it could mean avoiding paying the AMT.
Active/passive investment rules and the "at-risk" rules
A taxpayer who is not "active" in managing investment property may not use losses from rental property to offset other income such as salaries and wages, dividends, interest, capital gains, etc. Instead, these losses are deferred until the taxpayer either sells the property or generates passive income from this or other passive investment sources.
The at-risk rules similarly deny using these types of losses to the extent the taxpayer has acquired the investment with borrowed money and does not have personal liability on the debt.
Planning idea
If these loss limitations apply, consider the planning ideas mentioned above to minimize the losses being generated each year. They are not doing you any good anyway.
Sale of the property
Several different AMT issues can arise on the sale of rental/investment property. One is that your gain or loss may be different for the AMT than it is for Regular Tax purposes. This would be caused if different depreciation methods were used. For example, if the personal property was depreciated using an accelerated method for Regular Tax purposes, then the basis in that property when calculating gain or loss on sale would be different because the straight-line method had to be used for Alternative Minimum Tax purposes.
Gain on the sale of investment property generally is capital gain, although a portion may be treated as ordinary income depending on the accelerated depreciation method was used. Capital gains in and of themselves are not an AMT item, but nonetheless they can result in AMT being paid. This is because the AMT exemption amount is phased out for taxpayers at certain income levels, so this additional income can have the result of reducing the exemption which in turn increases taxable income for purposes of the Alternative Minimum Tax.
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